Hodlnaut Newsletter — November 2019

September 20, 2021

Bitcoin Halving

Bitcoin Block Reward Halving Countdown

Bitcoin is expected to halve in supply production in about 170 days.

This Bitcoin block reward is a BTC amount that is earned by the miners for a successful block and is decided by the algorithm that governs Bitcoin. The algorithm dictates that for every 210,000 Blocks, the reward should halve. The implications of this are that the supply of new Bitcoin being produced will be halved from this event. The time of the halving cannot be known exactly because it happens after a given number of blocks and not at a certain time. There are variations in time taken to mine a block, so it might happen slightly earlier or later.

Halving’s Impact on Bitcoin Price

Pseudonymous trader Plan B has gone a step further and used the stock-to-flow (S2F) ratio — which divides current inventory by annual production — to create a model that retroactively predicts past price movements for bitcoin with a high degree of accuracy, using gold and silver as benchmarks. This model predicts a bitcoin price of almost US $60,000 after the next halving (the black line in the chart above).

Link to model: https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/modeling-bitcoins-value-with-scarcity-91fa0fc03e25

At the time of writing, BTC was priced at approximately US$7,525.This is a 45% fall from 2019’s all-time high.

Please do your own research, the above model is not advice and we would encourage our clients to seek proper advice before doing any trade or deploying any leverage.

HODL-ing still seems to be the best solution at the moment.

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The Hodlnaut Team

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